Wednesday 18 April 2012

Good work by the Pensioners' Party

Exhibit One, from The Guardian:

The pain that quantitative easing has caused pensioners and savers should be offset by government compensation, a report by MPs has said. The Treasury select committee recommends that the Bank of England provide an estimate of "the overall benefit and loss" to those groups as a result of the money-printing operation

"Loose monetary policy, achieved through quantitative easing and low interest rates, has redistributional effects, particularly penalising savers, those with 'draw-down pensions', and those retiring now," it said in its report on the budget. "The Bank of England has argued that some of those effects may be mitigated by the increase in asset prices stimulated by quantitative easing. While the aggregate of savers and pensioners may have received some benefit from higher asset prices, there will be many individuals who will not have benefited."


Ultimately of course, the purpose of QE was propping up and bailing out banks. To achieve that, the government had to push down interest rates. All QE boils down to is the government replacing long-term borrowing at higher interest rates with short-term borrowing at lower interest rates; so superficially the taxpayer makes a saving, but the commercial banks were allowed to bank a large part of these savings up front. This has the added bonus, from the banks' point of view, that low interest rates push up house prices, and if house prices are high, banks can trick people into borrowing ever larger amounts of money.

Presented like this, it doesn't sound too attractive, but the banks have harnessed the forces of Home-Owner-Ism. High house prices make us all poorer in the long run (and the banks correspondingly richer), but a large part of the electorate love the idea of high house prices because it makes them feel richer. Who are these people?Chart from the Intergenerational Foundation

Yup, it's the the Baby Boomers born since 1945. The people actually old enough to have fought in World War II don't own that much housing (bearing in mind they have next to no mortgage debt and the figures above show net housing equity after deducting mortgage debt); the Boomers couldn't give a shit about their children taking on crippling mortgages and aren't too fussed about how little their parents have to live on either - they are rubbing their hands in glee at all their lovely inheritance.

So fair enough, the pensioners have been done over, but at least they are organised enough to ask for handouts. But what are the chances of the Treasury select committee pointing out that people aged 40 and under are being done over as well, working out what they've lost in terms of interest on whatever deposits they have saved up, and more to the point, all the extra money they will have to pay out to be able to buy a house at today's inflated prices? And what are the chances of the Planning select committee (if there were such a thing) pointing out that NIMBYism has also driven up the price of housing?
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Exhibit Two, a sob story from The Daily Mail:

Walter Harper has lived in his beloved home for two decades — but last July he was forced to put it on the market.
He shared the Luton bungalow with his wife and, after she passed away, his partner, and has watched his grandchildren play there. But he is being forced to move because he owes £110,000 on an interest-only mortgage that he can’t afford to repay. Instead of spending his last days in the house he loves, he will be forced to rent elsewhere.

Mr Harper, 69, first put his house on the market for £230,000. He has dropped the asking price by £20,000 and even if he gets this, he will still lose half of the money paying off the bank. These are savings he desperately needs, as rent is going to cost him almost £9,000 a year.


If he bought two decades ago, at the age of 49, the house can't have cost him much more than £50,000. The article says he had an interest-only mortgage, but why has it crept up to £110,000? A bit of mortgage equity withdrawal, perchance? And yes, his pension lump sum only turned out to be half what he'd been promised, but it still paid out £34,000, meaning he would left with a very modest £16,000 outstanding on his mortgage, which is still a fantastic deal, seeing as the mortgage he was paying was probably a lot cheaper than renting and he's made a £150,000 windfall, tax-free gain on the house.

But for some reason, The Daily Mail see this as a hard luck story (although he doesn't get much sympathy in the comments), while having no sympathy with somebody who's starting out today who's expected to magic a £40,000 deposit out of nowhere and then pay off a £160,000 which will cost twice that by the time it's paid off.

Again, mortgage equity withdrawal is the banks' secret weapon - a lot of the Boomers will be disappointed to find that their parents have already spent it all on themselves. Remember: in the end, the bank always wins (until I'm in charge).

12 comments:

Graeme said...

so many people were sucked into low-start mortgages and interestt-only mortgages...that you can imagine that there will be a few calamities. But now the copmpenstionists will come along - he should have been warned that he would have to pay the capital....and all that crap. just push these people into trailer parks and then ease them gradually into the North Sea.

Electro-Kevin said...

I read the DM article and felt the very same thing.

I don't think there are half the distressed IO borrowers they're making out. In truth interest only has been a cracking way of affording a home and avoiding rent.

Electro-Kevin said...

PS The median equity levels 'per person' must be distorted a minority of very highly priced drums.

If the average UK house is around £160k with two adults owning it ...

TheFatBigot said...

Mr Harper's predicament is not a hard-luck story. He borrowed money and made no or insufficient provision to pay it back. That's not hard luck, it's bad budgeting.

Perhaps he had a jolly time drenching himself with hot and cold running girlies feeding him peeled grapes on a chaise longue, perhaps he put every spare penny on three-legged nags on every 2.30 race at Doncaster, I don't know.

What I do know is that he borrowed money and knew from the very day the (or each) loan agreement was signed that it would have to be repaid on a clearly defined day in the future.

It really has come to a pretty pass when a national newspaper promotes irresponsible profligacy as a hard-luck story.

Barnacle Bill said...

Mr. FB glad to see you commenting and I full agree with the sentiments you express.
When I've borrowed money from my bank it has always been my understanding and intention to repay it in full and on time.
No ifs, no buts ...
As for Mr. Harper, he never had it so good and a fool if he didn't take advantage of it.

Edward Spalton said...

I couldn't agree more that high house prices make us all poorer -except the mortgage providers and the lawyers and estate agents who take a slice of each inflated transaction.

However, to return to pensions. Many with occupational pensions from private employment operate the "draw down" from their pension fund. The funds remain in their name and the Government Actuary's Department permits them to draw income (and possibly some capital gain) at a "prudent" level so they won't run out of money before they die. But what the Actuary considers "prudent" is arbitrarily fixed by reference to the yield on government stocks which have been artificially depressed by a deliberate policy of low interest rates.

So, on the three year review, many pensioners have found the amount they are permitted to draw reduced by as much as 40% . It's immediate and unappealable.
Can you imagine the fuss if public sector pensions were (a) not inflation-proofed and (b) subject to an arbitrary reduction of this sort?

People with pensions they have earned and paid for are obviously very slow to anger - or ministers would, by now, be decorating the lamp posts in Parliament Square.

Mark Wadsworth said...

Ed, sure, as a completely separate issue, the whole pensions thing is a massive con, the main beneficiaries of the tax breaks etc are the insurance companies and all the paper shufflers*. But if you claim the tax relief on the way in, you have to accept that they will tax you and mess you about on the way out as well.

* The same people as benefit from high house prices, uncoincidentally.

Lola said...

Well. Well. I am bang in the middle of the 55/64 age group and have double the average equity....

Lola said...

Ed hasn't got it quite right, if I may politely point out.

The logic can only apply to money purchase plans, or final salary plans transferred to a drawdon scheme on retirement.

But the thrust is exactly accurate. Since the prescribed methodology for caculating the 'pension' payments is based on Gilt rates, and they have collapsed. Hence at the statutroy review date (triennially?) drawdown pensioners can see a dramatic drop in their permitted maximum pension drawdown income.

Mark Wadsworth said...

L, of course he hasn't got it quite right, there are few people (actually nobody) who uderstand all the rules on the different schemes, bearing in mind that the employer has rules, the pension scheme has rules, HMRC has rules and the annuity companies have rules; and all of these rules keep changing, how the f- are normal mortals supposed to know exactly which sub-set of rules apply to them?

That's part of the magic of pensions, this huge great smokescreen of rules to enable the insiders to help themselves with impunity.

Anonymous said...

Drawdown's easy enough to grok, but I'd question the use of "occupational pension" in that context; it's only available from personal pensions.

All you need to know, as Edward says, is the GAD rate and the fund value at the point of review. A GAD calculator does the rest and defines the max pension drawable for the next three years.

With GAD going down to 2.5% in May, largely courtesy of QE, a good many pensioners using this method will find themselves very much worse off in cash terms each month. In fact, those last reviewed in May three years ago will be absolutely boracic, hence the pressure on the dimwit Steve Webb and his unmerry cohorts to reinstate the 120% GAD drawdown limit.

Mark Wadsworth said...

FT, nice bit of jargon.

Yes of course, drawdown is actually a nonsense, the deal was originally, get your tax+NIC relief on the way in, 25% tax free and then buy an annuity, taxed on the way out. But all of a sudden, people change their minds about the annuity and want to renege on the deal, the whole draw down is a bit of a foul compromise.

But people still tend to get a rough deal, or think they are getting a rough deal (a lot of them won't be, of course). That's what happens when you start with a terrible idea and then keep adding new bits on to try and make it less terrible but end up making it all worse. (Far better to cut tax generally and get rid of pensions tax relief.)