Saturday 21 April 2012

Euro slides, sterling surges...

... are not the kind of fatuous headlines you will find on this blog, unlike at Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. Yes, over the last 24 months, EUR has gone up a bit and down a bit in terms of GBP, and at the moment it is 'down a bit':But if you look at a twenty-year chart of each currency against a currency basket, the last few months are just little up or down ticks. It looks as if GBP is finally bottoming out again after its precipitous falls of 2007 and 2008, that's about all that's worth mentioning:

5 comments:

A K Haart said...

I think you'd have a hard job showing those graphs aren't just random movements - in a drunkard's walk sense. Particularly the top one.

Mark Wadsworth said...

AKH, correct. Currencies are always either overvalued or undervalued, the interesting bit is working out which, why and for how long this state of affairs will continue.

Bayard said...

Hmm, the bottom graph seems to show an eighteen-year cycle. I wonder where I have seen that before.

Mark Wadsworth said...

B, well spotted. I hadn't thought about that.

If all countries had land price boom busts at the same time, then the cycle wouldn't show up, because not all currencies can fall against each other. So that suggests that the UK is the most prone to the land price boom bust.

Sarton Bander said...

A Low pound is good for the economy like taking a pay cut is good for your employment prospects...