Monday 20 July 2009

Yeah, but compared to what?

From the BBC:

The total amount of UK mortgage lending rose sharply in June compared with the previous month, according to lenders.

The amount lent by members of the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reached £12.3bn in June, up from £10.5bn a month earlier. However, the rise was mainly the result of the common seasonal increase in moving home and the figure was still 48% lower than in June 2008.


Right, let's go back a bit further, shall we (all based on CML figures AFIAA)?

Gross mortgage lending June 2009: £12.3 billion
Gross mortgage lending June 2008: £25 billion
Gross mortgage lending June 2007: £34.2 billion
Gross mortgage lending July 2006: £30.4 billion
Gross mortgage lending June 2005: £25.7 billion
Gross mortgage lending June 2004: £28.2 billion

Remember also that house prices barely rose during 2005, which you can easily correlate with the relatively low figure for lending in that year. OK, we can argue that correlation does not mean causation, but seeing as house price rises and easy credit are both themselves symptoms of confidence in borrower's future earnings capacity ...

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