Saturday 28 June 2008

Economic illiterates of the day (8)

First up is Prof Stephen Nickell:

A year ago he was bravely forecasting that house prices would rise to ten-times-income by 2026. Six months ago he had toned this down slightly and solemnly told the House of Lords that prices might 'only' rise to over nine-times-income by 2026. Here's the same chap again, solemnly predicting that house prices are now on the slide (oh, so he noticed!). And, apart from being wildly out with his original predictions and not apologizing for that in any way, he appears to think that house price falls are a bad thing: "Families must wait until 2015 for the property market to start booming again". For young couples who'd like to start a 'family' these price falls are a most wonderful thing!
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Next up, Kate Barker:

She is the Government stooge who wrote the Barker Report back in 2004 and came up with the 'target' of 240,000 new homes a year*. The delectable Caroline Flint** referred to this as if it were Gospel in her recent FT interview with the FT:"The need to get up to 240,000 homes a year is as relevant today as it was yesterday and will be as relevant in the future, based on very detailed evidence Kate Barker pulled together demonstrating that we hadn't built enough homes."

Kate Barker has had four years to come out and distance herself from her earlier crap*** - but not much chance of that happening, is there?
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What is so terrifying about all of this is that Prof Stephen Nickell and Kate Barker have both served on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.

Jumping Jesus H Jack F***ing Flash, with knobs on, are these really the best people they can find?
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* To be fair, there is a lot of useful research in the original report, you can sort of imagine her sitting back and saying "F*** it, what we need is liberalisation of planning laws and/or Land Value Tax" but like that other government stooge Sir Michael Lyons, she only dared mention these possibilities very briefly.

** Yes of course she's an economic illiterate as well - she's a Labour politician, what do you expect? Her bright suggestion is "pressing ahead in the area where she believes she can make a difference - using the clout of public sector bodies to help housebuilders, not only by buying thousands of new-build homes from them, but perhaps by changing payment terms so registered social landlords pay more upfront. The move will be welcomed by the beleaguered industry, even if it is not enough radically to transform its fortunes."

Nice one, Caroline! And seeing as sales of cars, holidays, furniture etc will no doubt fall as well, how about doing something to help the "beleagured" car manufacturers, travel agents or furniture shops?

*** For a pleasing contrast, see Lord Joel Barnett, who has spent half his life "actively campaigning for a reform of his own formula".

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm old enough to remeber Joel Barnett: by Labour standards he was a giant.

Anonymous said...

Caroline Flint is the very worst of the second tier hoping to become first tier.Pick any three random ideas out the air and she will present one of them on Today, just for the headline, no matter how impractical, barmy or unenforceable.

Email her the following :
1] Government to allow airlines to charge for emotional baggage.

2] The little windmills in peoples gardens and the ones toddlers carry are to be wired into the national grid to power local schools.

3] All newbuilds to be flat roofed to allow for an extension at a future date.

4] 5 a day now to become 6 a day as people have become a little healthier and government can't have a slowdown in target atainment.

5]people are too miserable. Encourage local councils to work a smiley face into their logos and use a 'heart' or smiley' or 'sunshine' to dot the i's on council tax bills.

Mark Wadsworth said...

6) I'll shag anybody (male, female, whatever, look at my eyes!) senseless.